The first month of the U.S. war against Iran caused crude oil prices to skyrocket around the world, and the price of Alaska’s oil has risen particularly far.
That rise is making tens of millions of dollars, maybe a few hundred million dollars if high prices persist, available for state services and the Permanent Fund dividend, even as it squeezes the finances of individual Alaskans.
In figures newly compiled by the Alaska Department of Revenue, the average price of a barrel of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude was $111.17 in April.
That’s $8.70 higher than the average price of a barrel of Brent crude, a benchmark price for Europe’s North Sea oil. It was also $13.11 per barrel higher than the average price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for oil from America’s second-largest state.
“The differential is the largest monthly value since the year 2000 and may be the highest value in history,” said the Department of Revenue, referring to the gap between Brent and North Slope crude.
“The large premium is due to a tightness in the Pacific basin oil market, where ANS is traded,” the department said.
Alaska crude goes to refineries in Washington state and California, with a small volume delivered to a refinery in Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula.
In addition to Alaska oil, U.S. West Coast refineries obtain their crude from Canada, North Dakota and California oil fields, and a substantial volume from overseas suppliers.
“Uncertainty about shipping and delivery is incentivizing refiners to pay a premium for available crude that does not transit areas with substantial security risks. Crude grades from the Americas are the safest option. Brent primarily trades in the Atlantic basin, where the impacts from the Iran war are not quite as pronounced on a barrel-for-barrel basis.”
The premium now being paid for Alaska crude will have a significant impact on the state treasury if it continues for months.
Each $1 increase in the average price of a barrel of ANS crude for a full year is worth roughly $30 million to $50, depending on the price.
While more than half of the state’s general-purpose revenue now comes from the Alaska Permanent Fund’s investments, oil is still the No. 2 source of flexible spending money for the state, and prices — combined with production — cause the amount of available money to flex up and down each year.
Legislative budgeters write the state spending plan with an average crude price in mind for an entire fiscal year, from July 1 through June 30 of the following year.
In the current fiscal year, which ends June 30, the Department of Revenue expects prices to average $75.26 per barrel.
Thanks in part to the Alaska premium, the average through May 5 was $75.71. Every day that prices stay above that level, the more unexpected money the state will receive.
The state Senate already has a plan for that extra money.
The first $96 million would go to an “energy relief” payment that increases the amount of the 2026 Permanent Fund dividend by $150 per Alaskan. The next $111 million would be distributed to public schools, and anything above that would go into the state’s principal savings account, the Constitutional Budget Reserve.
While Alaska’s state treasury is receiving a boon from the high prices, legislators don’t expect it to last. In the fiscal year that starts July 1, they’re anticipating significantly lower average North Slope oil prices.
“The Senate operating budget, when combined with spending agreements for the capital budget, balances the budget on $73/barrel oil, with some money left over,” said Bethel Sen. Lyman Hoffman, co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee, speaking about the Senate’s budget proposal on May 6.
