Fishery biologists expect another strong year for sockeye salmon in southwestern Alaska’s Bristol Bay region, site of the world’s largest runs of the fish, also known as red salmon.
Next year’s run is not expected to equal the magnitude of the huge runs in some recent record-breaking and near-record years, however, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s preseason forecast.
The forecast, released earlier this month, predicts a return of 45.32 million Bristol Bay sockeye salmon next year, enough to support a harvest of 33.5 million fish.
This year’s Bristol Bay run totaled 56.7 million fish, and the harvest totaled 41.2 million fish. The record highs were set in 2022, when a run of 79 million sockeye salmon supported a harvest of just over 60 million fish.
If the 2026 forecast proves to be accurate, that would place next year’s Bristol Bay sockeye run below the last 10 years’ average of 61 million fish but above the long-term average of 37.4 million fish, the department said in its statement.
While the 2026 sockeye run forecast is for 45.32 million fish, the run size could be as low as 31.12 million and as high as 59.52 million, according to the department’s calculations.
The forecast is based on an analysis of the four age classes of sockeye salmon tied to Bristol Bay’s nine different river systems, past run histories and other factors. Age classes are split by years spent in freshwater and in the ocean. Bristol Bay sockeye spend one to two years in freshwater and two to three years in the ocean.
There is a caveat to the department’s preseason prediction: Forecasting salmon returns is “inherently difficult and uncertain,” said the department’s statement.
The methodology the state uses has generally worked well for the most part, the statement said, but in the past two decades, forecasts have underestimated Bristol Bay’s sockeye returns by 14% on average. Since 2014, each year’s actual return has exceeded the state’s preseason forecast.
