This summer’s Southeast pink salmon catch is predicted at about 10% above average and 40% higher than last year, with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game issuing a harvest forecast of 29 million pinks.

That would be slightly above the most recent 10-year average of 26 million fish and substantially higher than last year’s commercial pink salmon harvest of just over 20 million fish, more than 90% of which were caught by the seine fleet.

Last month’s Department of Fish and Game pre-season forecast did not include an outlook for the Southeast chum salmon catch.

The 2024 Southeast chum harvest of 15.7 million salmon was 61% higher than the recent 10-year average of 9.8 million, the department reported in its assessment of last year’s commercial effort.

Most commercial chum catches in Southeast are hatchery production.

Of last year’s total catch of 15.7 million chum, 5.8 million were harvested in the purse seine fishery, 4.6 million through hatchery cost-recovery efforts, and 3.9 million fish were harvested in the drift gillnet fishery.

Statewide, after a poor showing last year, Alaska’s commercial salmon harvest appears poised for a rebound, according to projections by state biologists.

This year’s total salmon harvest is expected to be more than twice as big as last year’s total, thanks primarily to stronger returns of pink salmon, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s annual statewide run forecast and commercial harvest projection. The report was released in May.

The department’s projected 2025 harvest is 214.6 million fish, above the 2000-2023 average of 175 million fish, though well below the record 280 million salmon harvested commercially in 2013.

This year’s projected total is much higher than the 103.5 million salmon harvested commercially last year.

If the harvest comes in as forecast, it would be the 10th-largest on record, said Forrest Bowers, director of the department’s Division of Commercial Fisheries, as reported by the Alaska Beacon.

Key to the projection for this year is a much-improved outlook for pink salmon. This year’s harvest of pink salmon is expected to exceed last year’s harvest by 98.2 million fish, according to the department, with much of the higher returns coming in Prince William Sound and the Kodiak harvest area.

Pink salmon are the most abundant and lowest-priced of all five Alaska salmon species. Last year’s harvest of about 40 million pink salmon was considered abysmal, even taking into account the normal pattern of weaker runs in even-numbered years.

The species has a two-year life cycle, the shortest of all Alaska salmon species.

The department is also forecasting increases in other species this year: 10.8 million more sockeye; 544,000 more coho salmon; and 876,000 more chum salmon.

But for chinook, or king salmon, recent returns and commercial harvests that have been anemic are expected to be even lower this year, according to the department’s forecast.

Last year, Alaska fishermen harvested 244,000 kings, according to the department. This year’s harvest is expected to be only 144,000 fish.

Because of poor returns, the state has had to “severely restrict” harvests in recent years, Bowers said. This year’s projected totals also reflect obligations under the U.S.-Canada Pacific Salmon Treaty, he said. The treaty aims to ensure that enough salmon return to spawning grounds to provide adequate fish for harvesters in both countries, a goal that has proved elusive.

And there is another way that this year’s commercial harvest is expected to be better than last year’s harvest: The fish will not be as small, biologists believe.

Pacific salmon have been shrinking in size for decades, a trend attributed to climate change, competition for food in the ocean and other conditions. Results of that trend were apparent last year. The average size of sockeye salmon from Bristol Bay, the dominant source of Alaska sockeye, was only 4.53 pounds, the smallest on record.

Measured by pounds, the total commercial harvest of Alaska salmon across all species was the third lowest on record, at about 450 million.

Last year’s slimmed-down average size of Alaska salmon was influenced by the mix of age classes in the Bristol Bay harvest. Last year, about 80% of the returning fish were younger, having spent only two years in the ocean, according to the department.

But this year’s returning Bristol Bay salmon are expected to be older, with 63% of them coming back after three years in the ocean, Bowers said.

“As you can imagine, a 3-year ocean fish is going to be larger than a 2-year ocean fish because most of their growth occurs in the ocean,” he said.

Regardless of projections, market conditions influence fishing efforts, the department’s annual statewide forecast notes. Therefore, the numbers calculated “may not be indicative of actual harvests,” it said