The state estimates that the Haines Borough’s population grew by about 100 people last decade, but a new report predicts a steady decline over the next 30 years.

Expected outmigration, low birth rates and a climbing death rate due to an aging population all contributed to the estimate.

Aligning with a regional trend, the number of Haines residents is forecasted to drop by 7.2%, or 187 people, by 2050, according the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s September economic trends report. The state in 2021 estimated Haines’ population to be 2,614. It anticipates the borough’s population will see a slow and steady decline to 2,427 in 2050.

Southeast Alaska’s population is expected to fall by 13% by 2050, with the Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area leading the downturn at a 31% loss.

“Haines, and Southeast as a whole, is older on average than the rest of the state. With that we will see more mortality,” said state demographer David Howell, who authored the state’s report on population dynamics. “Our birth rates are quite low compared to the rest of the state,” he added. “These two things kind of factor together to see population loss.”

Skagway is the only area in Southeast predicted to gain population; the state forecasts Skagway’s population to grow by 45%, increasing from 1,203 to 1,748.

Howell told the CVN that Skagway’s positive projection is based on recent gains in migration. The state uses Permanent Fund Dividend data to monitor population changes, so it’s “hard to say” to say why Skagway has experienced a recent influx in residents, Howell told the CVN. But he noted that growth in the cruise industry could be a factor.

Skagway is an exception to the rule: Alaska has suffered nine consecutive years of net migration losses, and across the state birth rates have been declining since 2015. And deaths are expected to increase as baby boomers age.

“More deaths plus fewer births means much lower levels of natural increase,” Howell wrote in the report. “Alaska will gain a projected 4,300 people through natural increase from 2022 to 2023, which will fall to 1,300 a year by 2050.”

Earlier this year Alaska labor department researchers questioned the local results of the 2020 U.S. Census, which showed Haines’ population declining over the last decade by 17%. The state estimated Haines in 2021 to have about 500 more residents than were recorded in the 2020 census and 100 more than in the 2010 census. The census error likely was caused by an undercounting of housing units up Haines Highway, a state demographer told the CVN in March.

Southeast isn’t the only region expected to lose residents in coming years. The Gulf Coast, Anchorage, and parts of the interior — particularly Denali and the Yukon-Koyukuk Delta — could see population declines.

Overall, Alaska’s population is expected to grow in the next three decades by 24,800 people, well below the historical average. It grew by more than 147,000 people over the past 29 years, according to the report. Much of the growth is expected to occur in the Mat-Su.

“Alaska’s long growth streak extended through the early 2010s, but the population shrunk later in the decade for the first time since the oil crash of the 1980s. The late 2010s decrease was mainly a downturn in net migration (in-migrants minus out-migrants), but also less natural increase (births minus deaths),” Howell wrote.

The state’s report, however, doesn’t mention climate change or the possibility of migration northward as lower latitudes warm and experience worsening drought, fires and other natural disasters. A recent Time magazine report about where people will move due to climate impacts concluded that “Alaska looks the best place to live in the U.S. … and cities will need to be built to accommodate millions of migrants heading for the newly busy Anthropocene Arctic.”

A 2018 study in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists predicted that 1 in 12 Americans in the southern half of the country would move toward California, the Mountain West or the Northwest in the next 45 years due to climate change. But only time will tell whether that migration will happen, and what it could mean for Haines.

State researchers project that Alaska will see a negative 0.2% migration rate between 2022 and 2050, based on the past 30-year average and other factors like birth and death rates. But in the trends report, Howell notes that migration is “uncertain,” and even small, steady gains in migrants could cause the state’s population to rise significantly.