This summer could be a banner tourism season. Or it could be a bust, brought on by a yet unknown coronavirus variant and a new program of restrictions and cancellations. Or it could be somewhere in between those extremes.

With optimism about historically strong cruise bookings yet lingering uncertainty associated with the pandemic, borough officials and business owners are trying to figure out how best to plan.

“We keep hearing these reports that we’re supposed to have this epic tourism season that’s supposed to rival that of the 2019 season,” said Tracey Harmon, executive director of the Haines Chamber of Commerce, at a Chamber luncheon on Feb. 25. But given pandemic-related unknowns, “we’re still operating in this mentality of uncertainty,” she said.

Haines Borough tourism director Steven Auch said 76 calls to Haines from 12 different vessels are currently on the summer cruise schedule. If all those sailings are full, 89,544 passengers would visit Haines — a 134% increase from pre-pandemic levels. And several more calls could be added between now and the start of the season, Auch said.

Still, even as the Omicron surge wanes around the U.S., Canada hasn’t fully opened its borders to cruise ships. The Alaska delegation in the U.S. Congress last month drafted legislation to extend a waiver that lets ships coming from Washington state bypass Canada, but between 40% and 45% of cruise routes to Alaska originate in Vancouver, according to Lanie Downs, public affairs representative at Cruise Lines International Association. Seattle and Bellingham don’t have enough space to accommodate all ships scheduled out of Canada, Downs said at the Chamber luncheon, so if Canada’s restrictions remain unchanged by summer, statewide cruise numbers could fall below projections. (Auch said he wasn’t sure how many of the 76 planned Haines calls are scheduled out of Canada.)

Even so, the sheer number of bookings indicates that the summer will be busy with tourists across Southeast. “We really do expect to have a full season, ” Downs said. “It might not hit 100 or 106% capacity, but I think it definitely will be strong.”

While an influx of tourists could spur spending at local stores, some small business owners have expressed concerns about staffing and making it through the winter.

“There’s a lot of focus on this projected big cruise ship season, which would be great if it happens. (But) there are so many ifs and variables,” said The Bookstore owner Amy Kane, who opened just before the pandemic started in 2020. Kane said business is typically slow in winter months but has been especially slow this February, as COVID numbers rose and deterred shoppers.

“Looking at the cruise ship schedule, getting from here to there seems really hard right now,” Kane said. “To operate with a lot of people coming and going—I just don’t know what that’s going to look like. It makes me nervous.”

As things stand right now, Kane said she couldn’t afford to hire preemptively. She said she’ll have to wait and see, hoping to bring in enough revenue at the outset of the tourism season to hire extra hands later on, if needed.

Most ships will call on Haines on Monday and Thursday evenings, some docking at 7 p.m. and departing at 11 p.m. Kane said she’s not sure if passengers will make it to Main Street to shop at those hours, adding that if only a handful of tourists shopped that could make a big difference. “I don’t need 3,000 people to come to the store,” she said.

Alpenglow owner Olen Larson said he knew from the start of the pandemic that tourism would be slow for a few years and that his business would have to rely mostly on local traffic. Alpenglow served only about 20 or 25 customers from cruise ships last summer, despite several dockings, Larson said in an email to the CVN.

“We are fortunate enough to have the town behind (us) and constantly providing us with their business,” Larson said. He added, though, that staffing has been a challenge.

Rhonda Hinson, co-owner of Alaska Rod’s, said she’s excited for the possibility of a big summer season but that in the back of her mind are concerns about cruise ship cancelations and strict border travel requirements. She roughly guessed that sales are split evenly among cruise passengers, independent Canadian travelers and locals.

Lee Robinson, owner of Rusty Compass Coffeehouse, also said he’s excited about the upcoming season, both for his business and the community at large. “Our most immediate challenge may be related to staffing,” Robinson said. “However, any time I’ve been concnered about staffing, it seems like there is someone willing to step into a need that we have.”

Auch said the borough is planning to contract a shuttle into town for passengers on large cruise ships. Haines Shuttle shut down at the end of February, and there is some question as to whether cruise passengers will have ample transportation options around town.

In addition to cruise passengers, Haines could see more independent travelers. Auch said Alaska Airlines is expecting to match 2019 ticket sales this summer, and vaccinated Americans will be able to travel through Canada, unlike last summer when the border was closed to all non-essential land crossings.

In other small business news, the Shop Local program at the end of 2021 generated $183,202 in local sales. That program was administered by the Haines Chamber of Commerce, Haines Economic Development Corporation and the Haines Borough.