Gov. Mike Dunleavy told legislators in a pair of closed-door meetings last week that he will introduce a state sales tax as a component of a budget-balancing, long-term fiscal plan.

But with just three weeks left in the legislative session, with no details about the governor’s tax bill as of Monday, and with strong opposition from lawmakers who represent communities with a local sales tax, the odds of passage this year are extremely low.

If the governor goes ahead with a sales tax bill, it would join more than a dozen proposals offered by House and Senate members this year to address Alaska’s long-term revenue shortfall. Those proposals include a sales tax, income tax, an increase in oil production taxes and higher property taxes on oil and gas companies.

The state has lived off declining savings much of the past 30 years to cover the budget, and could face years more of deficits if it pays out a large Permanent Fund dividend to Alaskans.

While the governor told lawmakers last week he favored a sales tax, opponents contend it would disproportionately hurt lower-income Alaskans who spend a larger share of their income on essential goods and services that could be subject to the tax.

Sales tax opponents generally favor a personal income tax to help balance the state budget, contending that a progressive tax table would put more of the burden on wealthier Alaskans, though there is strong political opposition to an income tax.

Then there is the middle ground against either tax.

“There doesn’t appear to be a need for a broad-based tax if we have a reasonable PFD,” said Sen. Bert Stedman, co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee, now in his 21st year in the Legislature.

The senator said he opposes any tax if the purpose is to raise more money for a larger PFD.

The budget approved earlier this month by the Republican-led House includes a $2,700 PFD for this year, about double the average of the past 10 years other than the record-setting 2022 election-year dividend of $3,284.

However, without new revenues or significant cuts to public services, neither of which the House has adopted, next year’s budget is in the red by an estimated $600 million — even more if the state increases its support for public schools.

The Senate majority, comprised of a mix of Republicans and Democrats, supports a $1,300 PFD as part of a balanced budget.

Juneau Sen. Jesse Kiehl said that residents in communities with their own sales tax could see the biggest hit to their economy. Residents in more than 100 cities and boroughs pay a sales tax, ranging from 1.5% to 7.85%.

“Alaska needs a broad-based tax” to establish a connection between economic activity, businesses and workers in the state and the revenues to pay for public services, Kiehl said. “But, man, a sales tax is a crummy choice.”

Dunleavy’s announcement in the two private meetings with House and Senate members of his pending sales tax legislation appears to be a departure from his past statements that he would oppose any new taxes without a statewide vote.