Average annual temperatures in Haines could rise between about 4 and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, according to projections by researchers at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks.
While scientists have said that climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a warmer and wetter future for the northern panhandle, new downscaled models offer more detailed possibilities for the Haines area.
Scientists project that Haines’ summer will experience the most warming of any season. The area’s average summer temperature could rise by up to 13 degrees, while average winter temperatures could move from below freezing to about 37 degrees, according to the projections.
Haines is likely to see more rain and snow, too, but the extent of that increase is uncertain for Southeast Alaska, said Richard Lader, a researcher at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center.
The northern panhandle is expected to get wetter, while the southern panhandle is projected to get drier, Lader said during a Southeast Alaska Watershed Workshop presentation last week about the region’s climate projections.
In Haines, summer is likely to have a bigger rise in precipitation than winter and could see an increase of as much as 31%, according to UAF’s projections.
But “there is a lot less certainty in terms of what our summer precipitation projections are looking like,” Lader said, speaking about the region as a whole.
“And then of course when you combine this uncertainty during the warm season with pretty good degree of warming temperatures, you have somewhat of a possible recipe for increased, in the short term, dry conditions during the warm season,” Lader added.
Southeast Alaska experienced a historic drought from 2016 to 2019 — the most severe on record. Models suggest that event occurred due to warming temperatures, not changes in precipitation, Lader said.
UAF’s projections for Haines — and other areas across the state — are based on global climate models and “downscaling” methods, like using local historical weather data to adapt the global models to local areas.
Due to the Chilkat Valley’s many microclimates, scientists have said in the past that climate change could have variable impacts on the area. Even though there might be increased risk of drought regionally, as Lader said, more intense rain events could lead to more landslides in Haines, state scientists told the CVN after the fatal December 2020 slide.
One of the projection tools that recently became available to the public is UAF’s “Northern Climate Reports,” which lets users see projections for towns, watersheds and protected areas across Alaska.
The tool shows forecasts based on two climate models under two different scenarios: low and high carbon emissions. For example, Haines’ average winter temperature would increase from 26 degrees in 2009 to 37 degrees by 2099 if humans continue to emit high levels of greenhouse gasses, while it would increase to 31 degrees if there’s a reduction in carbon emissions, according to Haines’ climate report.
The tool, which is still in a beta test mode, can be accessed at northernclimatereports.org. Residents can explore more climate models and information at uaf-snap.org and piak-collab.org.