Haines Borough officials are planning to appeal 2020 U.S. Census results, which likely were inaccurate in Haines, state researchers said last week.
Borough manager Annette Kreitzer said the count not only affects the federal government’s funding calculations but also private sector decisions, such as whether to open a business in Haines or which services to provide the community.
Borough chief fiscal officer Jila Stuart said population is a factor in the federal payment- in-lieu-of-taxes program, which compensates local governments for loss of property taxes from federal lands, such as Bureau of Land Management land in Haines. Annual borough revenue from that program is about $400,000.
Population also factors into applications for a handful of federal grants, said Carolann Wooton, borough contracts and grants administrator.
The borough can ask for a formal review of the 2020 census through the Census Bureau’s Count Question Resolution (CQR) initiative. Kreitzer and Mayor Douglas Olerud both said the borough is planning to submit an appeal. It has until June 2023 to do so.
The bureau will assess the geographic boundaries and housing numbers it used to calculate population. If it finds an error, it won’t change official census data but will issue a notice of errata, including updated housing and population counts, which will be used for federal funding calculations and as the basis for later population estimates.
The scope of review is limited, though. The bureau “cannot research whether the respondents or census enumerators made an incorrect determination of individual housing size or occupancy status. (The borough) must provide documentation…indicating that the Census Bureau missed housing, not simply missed population, during 2020 Census enumeration,” according to a CQR fact sheet.
The census said Haines’ population declined 17%, from 2,508 in 2010 to 2,080 in 2020, but the state estimates that Haines’ population in July will be 2,614 — a 4% increase.
Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development demographers suspect the federal government undercounted housing units, and residents, up the highway — in Mosquito Lake and at the Covenant Life Center.
In 2020, the census recorded 1,370 housing units in the borough. In 2010, according to the census, there were 1,631 housing units. There is no clear explanation for a decline of that magnitude, the state found.
In 2010, roughly one in four eligible inquiries resulted in a change to a government’s boundary or population count, according to the Census Bureau. The national population increase was only 527 people after the 2010 CQR review.
During the 2021 borough assembly election campaign, candidates differed on their interpretations of the census results. Some said population decline reflected a sluggish economy, while others said they didn’t trust the numbers.
Haines had a 33% self-response rate last year, down from the 45% self-response rate in 2010. The state had a 55% self-response rate in 2020.