According to the U.S. Census, Haines’ population fell by 17% between 2010 and 2020 — the largest decline in Alaska. But as many residents suspected, that number is inaccurate, state researchers found.

In fact, the state estimates that Haines’ population in July 2021 will be 2,614 — about 500 people more than were recorded in the 2020 census and up 100 people from the 2010 census.

Was there a census screw-up this big anywhere else in Alaska? “Not to this extent. No,” said Eric Sandberg, demographer at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

While the state has known for months that the census numbers didn’t correspond with state data, like PFD numbers, which stayed steady between 2010 and 2020, researchers haven’t been able to identify the cause of the disparity — until now.

Sandberg said the 2020 census significantly undercounted housing units in the borough, particularly up the road in Mosquito Lake and Covenant Life.

In 2020, the census recorded 1,370 housing units in the borough of which 966 were occupied. Ten years ago, though, according to the census, there were 1,631 housing units of which counted 1,149 occupied.

But state researchers don’t have an idea where those 250 housing units went. Actually, they probably didn’t go anywhere.

“When we compared (census data) to all of our other databases for the Haines Borough, we did not see anything else that would indicate a drop that large,” Sandberg said. “There hasn’t been any forest fire or any reason why it should have dropped that much. We think (housing units) got dropped by the database or missed or deleted.”

Which specific households did the census miss? It’s not clear, and likely won’t be for a while, Sandberg said, because the census only makes public aggregated data.

To make annual population estimates the state uses a ratio between the most recent census figures and PFD numbers. Moving ahead, the labor department will ignore the 2020 census and continue to use the 2010 number to formulate its Haines population estimates.

The 2019 and 2021 population estimates for Haines are more accurate than the 2020 census, the state advised in a March economic trends report.

Some residents have cited the alleged population decrease as a sign of economic stagnation in the borough.

The borough can request an official review of the data from the Census Bureau.