Haines had fewer visitors in 2021 than in any other year for the last two decades, except 2020, according to a report compiled by Haines Borough tourism director Steven Auch.

But Auch and members of the Tourism Advisory Board (TAB) are optimistic that in 2022 the borough could see a return to pre-pandemic tourism levels — or even an increase.

The bulk of Haines’ visitors arrive on cruise ships or ferries. At a Jan. 13 TAB meeting, Auch said cruise bookings indicate strong potential for the 2022 season.

Assuming full ship capacity this summer, Auch said 88,000 cruise passengers could come to the borough. That would be more cruise visitors than have come to Haines in the last 20 seasons. In 2021, cruise ships in Southeast were at about 75% capacity. That capacity in 2022, with the expected rise in sailings, would mean 66,000 visitors to Haines — significantly more than the average between 2010 and 2019 of about 40,000.

TAB members questioned whether the borough has adequate infrastructure and a workforce to handle a massive spike in visitors this summer.

The Haines Shuttle is shutting down at the end of January. But the borough is planning, as it has in the past, to contract a bus to transport passengers from large cruise ships to town.

“We know that people are going to get here if they are able to,” said TAB chair Barbara Nettleton. “This is something TAB really needs to focus on: Is our community prepared to handle a good visitor season?”

Auch said the borough needs to focus on helping businesses find the workforce needed to handle an influx in tourists.

On average from 2010 through 2019, about 143,000 people, including residents and visitors, flew, drove or took a cruise or ferry to Haines each year. Fewer than 14,000 people came to the borough in 2020, and about 15,500 in 2021. The borough doesn’t track numbers specific to non-resident visitors.

While some uncertainty lingers around the pandemic, the CDC on Jan. 15 lifted a conditional sail order requiring COVID safety protocols on cruise ships. (The mandatory order transitioned to voluntary guidelines.)

Still, several recent sailings have been canceled due to the rapid spread of the omicron variant, and the CDC in December advised people, even those who are vaccinated, not to travel on cruise ships due to risk of COVID transmission. Auch said he had heard from a cruise company executive that the CDC’s announcement has impacted early season bookings and could result in a less busy start to the season.

The first cruise ship of the summer is scheduled to come to Haines in May, but ships are scheduled to sail to Skagway a month earlier. A soft start to the season could mean fewer early visitors to Haines on the fast ferry from Skagway. While Auch and TAB members voiced optimism, they also acknowledged continued uncertainty due to the pandemic.

Still, in additon to the generally strong cruise forecast, Auch said he was hopeful that increased summer ferry service could facilitate travel for independent tourists. If the Alaska Marine Highway System can hire enough workers, Auch said it could operate two mainline vessels, the Columbia and Matanuska, in the upper Lynn Canal this summer. Currently, the Matanuska and LeConte are the only ferries on the schedule.

Many of the scheduled cruise dockings this summer will be short, evening calls, Auch said.