The Chilkoot sockeye run was exceptionally strong this year, but Chilkat sockeye stocks have struggled for the second year in a row, and biologists aren’t sure why.
The final escapement estimate for Chilkoot sockeye was 98,672—well beyond the state’s target range of 38,000 to 86,000 fish, according to Alaska Department of Fish and Game fisheries biologist Nicole Zeiser. Over the last 10 years, an average of 82,000 sockeye have made the annual run up Chilkoot River.
Twenty chinook, 221 coho, 48,213 pink and 1,241 chum salmon were also counted at Chilkoot this year. For all except the chinook, those numbers were above the recent 10-year average, Zeiser wrote in an email to the CVN.
This year’s scene at Chilkat has been quite different. The sockeye run was slow all summer, Zeiser said. The current weir count is at about 52,000 sockeye, below the 10-year average of 88,000 fish for this time.
“By the end of August, when typically 50% of the run is through the weir, the cumulative weir count was approximately 28,000 fish, less than half of average, suggesting a weak return, similar to last year,” Zeiser wrote.
Before last year Chilkat sockeye hadn’t missed the state’s escapement goal since 2007.
“It is uncertain why the Chilkat Lake sockeye salmon stocks have struggled the last two years,” Zeiser said.
The 2021 brood’s parent runs — in 2015 and 2016 — met or exceeded the escapement goal range of 70,000 to 150,000 fish. Marine mortality might be responsible for the last two years’ low stocks, but it’s not clear how.
Still, Chilkat weir counts have risen recently, and Zeiser said there’s still hope: “We still might achieve the lower bound of the escapement goal range…but it will be close!”
*This article has been updated to reflect that the final escapement estimate of 98,672 sockeye refers to Chilkoot, not Chilkat, stocks.