Salmon runs for the Chilkat and Chilkoot rivers are expected to be below average to average this year, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG). The department published its 2021 salmon fisheries run forecasts on March 11.
If fish returns are low this year, it could present a problem for the upcoming bear season. In recent years, below average fish returns have coincided with an increase in bear activity in town. In 2020, Haines saw an increase in bear-caused property damage and a record-setting number of bears shot outside of hunting season.
“When natural foods are less abundant, bears can roam around more looking for food, and some studies have shown that nuisance complaints can go up when natural food sources are low,” ADFG wildlife biologist Carl Koch said. “Last year’s combo of low fish runs and poor berries was a double whammy.”
In 2020, the Chilkat chum run was the lowest on record. ADFG has a 75,000 to 250,000 Chilkat chum escapement goal range. The department estimates chum escapement based on an expansion factor from the total fish wheel catches. The Chilkat River fall chum salmon escapement was estimated to be 22,454 fish last year.
“We have made the goal every year since 1999 except last year, 2020, (the) lowest on record,” ADFG biologist Nicole Zeiser said. “No idea why the chum return was a fluke, but it was poor statewide, as were the hatchery chum salmon returns.”
She said based on numbers from the 2017 and 2018 parent years, the expectation is that the 2021 chum run will be below average to average.
Although all five salmon species are found in both the Chilkat and Chilkoot rivers, not all of them are significant runs. The department has escapement goals for Chilkat kings, Chilkat coho, Chilkat chum and both Chilkat and Chilkoot sockeye. Of these, ADFG’s Division of Sport Fish releases a formal preseason total run forecast only for Chilkat kings. The projected returns of sockeye, chum and coho salmon are qualitative, calculated primarily from parent-year catch and escapement data.
The 2021 Chilkat king forecast is 1,500 large fish, below the escapement goal of 1,750-3,500 fish. The projection is largely based on returning fish from 2016 spawners, which so far appears poor, according to ADFG biologist Brian Elliott.
The Chilkat coho run is expected to be average in 2021, based on an escapement estimate from the 2019 parent year, which was just over 36,000, within the department’s escapement range, Zeiser said.
For Chilkat sockeye, the department’s expectation is average, based on escapement numbers from the 2015 and 2016 parent years. The expectation for Chilkoot sockeye is below average to average, based on 2016 parent year escapement, which was slightly above the escapement goal; the 2017 zooplankton biomass estimate, which was almost twice the average; and the 2017 fry population estimate, which was 40% below average.
The department doesn’t have escapement goals for pinks on either river, nor kings, coho and chum on the Chilkoot River, however, all species are monitored and counted through the Chilkoot River weir, Zeiser said. Regionwide, the department predicts pink runs will be average.
“The Chilkoot River parent year escapement in 2019 was 17,156, well below the ten-year average of 51,500 fish, so one could expect a below average return to Chilkoot—loose expectation, not a forecast,” Zeiser said.
Koch said he’s hoping the salmon runs will be stronger than last year and that berries will be more plentiful. If natural foods are less abundant, it could encourage bears to roam into town in search of food again in 2021.
“When natural foods are low, it’s even more important to secure attractants,” Koch said. He said although the abundance of natural food isn’t within his control, the department is planning an education effort in the Chilkat Valley this spring to teach residents about securing attractants.
The first in this series is a March 21 Zoom presentation in collaboration with Takshanuk Watershed Council and the Great Bear Foundation about securing bear attractants. The department plans to send representatives to Haines in April to give in-person demonstrations of how to use bear spray and set up electric fences.
In 2020, 49 bears were killed in Game Management Unit 1D, a combination of legal hunt kills, bears shot in defense of life or property, and other human-caused bear deaths. In response, the department severely reduced the bear harvest limit to seven to help regrow the population, which Fish and Game estimates was reduced by 16% to 20% last year. That quota includes bears shot in defense of life or property.